Scores in NFL games can be very misleading and look no further than Sunday's Patriots-Steelers game from Sunday afternoon to illustrate that gambler's truth.
Pittsburgh (6-2, 4-0 at home) won 25-17 at Heinz Field over New England (5-2, 2-2 on road) so at first glance, you think well it was a one-score game so it must have been close. Theoretically this was true since the Pats got the ball back down six points late in the fourth quarter.
Truthfully, without any timeouts and under the two-minute warning plus pinned way back in their territory, the Patriots had no chance. Mercifully, it ended soon after as the Steelers forced a fumble that went out the back of the end zone for a safety. This came after Bill Belichick chose to try an onside kick rather than pin the Steelers deep following the score which trimmed Pittsburgh's lead to 23-17.
Despite having insane results every week (see today: the winless Rams beating the Saints), every NFL expert loves to make conclusions after each game (as stupid as that tends to be) since ESPN's family of networks has a lot of programming slots to fill. Today's lesson: keep the ball away from Tom Brady (24 for 35, 198 yards, 2 TDs, O INTs) and New England's offense.
Even without a great running game (98 yards), the Steelers were able to own time of possession: 39:22 to 20:38. Rashard Mendenhall paced Pittsburgh with 70 yards on 13 carries while Kevin Faulk led New England with 32 yards on six carries (plus 5 catches, 20 yards) in his first game back in 13 months.
Ben Roethlisberger (36 for 50, 365 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) did his best Brady impression by spreading it around to nine different receivers. Heath Miller (7 catches, 85 yards), Mike Wallace (7 catches, 70 yards) and Emmanuel Sanders proved to be better than Rob Gronkowski (7 catches, 94 yards), Wes Welker (6 catches, 39 yards) and Deion Branch (4 catches, 36 yards) If Pittsburgh was a little better in the red zone (2 for 5), this one wouldn't have been so misleadingly close.
When passing around the blame pie for the Patriots, it's hard to say who's more responsible: the defense that couldn't get off the field or the offense that started each half with 3-and-outs? It's the boring answer but I'd say they're equally culpable. New England's defense actually did some nice things (5 sacks, 10 tackles for losses) but as usual, their secondary looked awful and the entire team tackled about as well as your local Pop Warner B team.
For whatever reason, the Pats abandoned the running game (43 total yards) pretty much right away and instead relied Gronk who was the only receiver who constantly got open and fought for extra yards after the catch. Pittsburgh shut down Welker and Branch save for 2-yard score from Branch.
The Steelers' first drive of the game foreshadowed the rest of the contest as they went 11 plays, 69 yards in 5:52. Roethlisberger hit Mewelde Moore for a 5-yard touchdown which was way too easy, 7-0 Steelers.
New England had the first of their aforementioned 3-and-outs before Pittsburgh closed out the first quarter with another lengthy drive. Vince Wilfork sacked Big Ben on 3rd-and-Goal from the 9 to limit the Steelers to a 33-yard kick by Shaun Suisham.
The Pats' next drive at least got into Pittsburgh territory but Lamar Woodley (2 sacks) ended it with a 14-yard sack on 3rd-and-15. Roethlisberger made one of his typical bonehead mistakes (residual effects from that motorcycle crash?) as he threw an easy interception to Gary Guyton three plays later.
Guyton returned it 17 yards to Pittsburgh's 8-yard line. After two plays, Brady hit Branch for a 2-yard TD and the Patriots were seemingly right back in it trailing 10-7.
Impressively, the Steelers weren't fazed and they went on another long drive: 10 plays, 76 yards, 5:39. Roethlisberger found Antonio Brown (9 catches, 67 yards) for a 7-yard touchdown. New England got some points on its abbreviated last drive of the half with a 46-yard field goal by Stephen Gostkowski. Pittsburgh led 17-10 going into halftime.
By failing to score let alone pick up a few first downs to begin the second half, New England started to let this game get away from them. The Steelers had another decent drive (14 plays, 55 yards, 7:06) but they had to settle for a 21-yard field goal and a 20-10 lead.
The Patriots were moving the ball and seemingly getting into a rhythm but it stalled as they tried to pass on every down. Even worse, Gostkowski's 42-yard field goal went off the goalpost. Not making excuses because Gostkowski is one of the NFL's better kickers but Heinz Field has always famously been a hard place to kick.
Believe it or not, the Steelers had another long drive (11 plays, 69 yards, 5:54) but yet again, they had to take a 23-yard field rather than a touchdown that likely would have ended it early in the fourth quarter.
The teams traded punts before Brady and his receivers channeled their two minute drill against the Cowboys from two weeks ago. Aaron Hernandez caught a 1-yard TD to cut it to 23-17. A 3-and-out by the Pats' defense would have given the offense the ball back but they were gassed and they couldn't stop Isaac Redman on the 3rd-and-1 run that iced it.
New England had burned all of its timeouts and it was under two minutes when Big Ben curiously decided to drop back for passes on two straight plays. The Pats got the ball back but it was too late to do anything productive, game over.
The Buffalo Bills (5-2) shutout the Washington Redskins in Toronto earlier today meaning they lead the AFC East (by tiebreaker) even though they have the same record as New England. The New York Jets (4-3) were idle and the Suck for Luck Dolphins (0-7) continued to do what they do.
Next Sunday, the New York Giants (5-2) visit Gillette Stadium for a rematch of Super Bowl 42. The G-Men are always one of the tougher teams to predict since in some weeks Eli Manning looks good and their defensive line is one of if not the best in the league. Then other times, they almost lose to Miami (today) and appear to be their own worst enemy.
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